India-Pakistan Tensions: WTO Tariff Row aur Indus Water Treaty Suspension se Bhadka Crisis

New Delhi/Islamabad, June 3, 2025 – India aur Pakistan ke beech tensions ek baar phir se high ho gaye hain, with recent developments in trade aur water disputes adding fuel to the fire. The United States ne India ke World Trade Organization (WTO) notice ko reject kar diya hai regarding tariffs on metals, jisse India ab retaliatory measures consider kar raha hai. Iske saath hi, Indus Water Treaty ke suspension ke baad Pakistan mein water crisis deepen ho raha hai, amid allegations of cross-border terrorism.

WTO Tariff Dispute: Kya Hai Matter?

India ne recently WTO mein ek notice file kiya tha, demanding a review of tariffs imposed on its metal exports, particularly steel aur aluminum, by the US. Yeh tariffs, jo Trump administration ke time se chal rahe hain, Indian exporters ke liye significant losses ka reason ban rahe hain. Lekin, US ne India ke claims ko dismiss kar diya, stating ke yeh tariffs national security grounds pe justified hain. Is rejection ke baad, Indian officials ne kaha hai ke wo retaliatory tariffs ya alternative trade measures pe thought de rahe hain.

Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal ne kaha, “Hum apne economic interests ko protect karenge. Agar US apne stance pe qaim rehta hai, toh India bhi apne options explore karega.” Experts ka kehna hai ke yeh move India-US trade relations ko complicate kar sakta hai, especially jab India already Pakistan ke saath geopolitical tensions face kar raha hai.

Indus Water Treaty Suspension: Pakistan Mein Water Crisis

Dusri taraf, India ke Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) ko suspend karne ka decision Pakistan ke liye ek bada jhatka sabit ho raha hai. Yeh treaty, signed in 1960, Indus river system ke waters ko India aur Pakistan ke beech share karta hai. Lekin April 22, 2025, ke Pahalgam terror attack ke baad, jisme 26 log mare gaye the, India ne yeh treaty “in abeyance” rakhne ka faisla kiya. India ka kehna hai ke Pakistan’s persistent cross-border terrorism treaty ke “goodwill aur friendship” ke spirit ko violate karta hai.

Is suspension ka direct impact Pakistan ke agriculture sector pe pad raha hai. Pakistan’s Punjab aur Sindh provinces, jo Indus river system pe heavily dependent hain, severe water shortages face kar rahe hain. Major dams like Mangla aur Tarbela mein water levels dangerously low ho gaye hain, jisse kharif (summer crops) sowing season disrupt ho raha hai. Pakistani PM Shehbaz Sharif ne Tajikistan ke ek international conference mein India ke is move ko “unilateral aur illegal” bataya, calling it a “weaponisation of water.”

Indian Minister of State for Environment Kirti Vardhan Singh ne counter kiya, “Pakistan khud terrorism ke through treaty violate kar raha hai. Jab tak Pakistan credibly cross-border terrorism stop nahi karta, treaty suspended rahega.”

Cross-Border Terrorism: The Root Cause?

Pahalgam attack, jisme Pakistan-based terrorists ka involvement confirmed hua tha, ne India ke stance ko aur sakht kar diya hai. India ne Operation Sindoor ke under May 7 ko Pakistan aur PoK mein nine terrorist bases pe missile strikes kiye the. Iske response mein, Pakistan ne bhi military action liya, lekin dono countries ne May 10 ko ceasefire agree kiya tha.

Lekin, water treaty ka suspension aur trade-related tensions indicate karte hain ke peace abhi bhi door hai. Pakistan ke Army Chief Asim Munir ne recently kaha tha ke water is Pakistan’s “red line,” aur iska diversion ek “act of war” mana jayega. Meanwhile, India ke Ministry of External Affairs ne clear kiya hai ke koi bhi bilateral talks tab tak nahi honge jab tak Pakistan terrorism ko completely renounce nahi karta aur PoK (Pakistan-occupied Kashmir) vacate nahi karta.

Economic aur Humanitarian Impact

Pakistan ke liye, Indus Waters Treaty ka suspension ek economic disaster ban sakta hai. Around 80% of Pakistan’s irrigated agriculture aur hydropower generation Indus river system pe depend karta hai. Experts warn kar rahe hain ke agar water crisis continue hota hai, toh food security aur energy production dono pe bura asar padega.

India ke taraf se, WTO notice ka rejection ek diplomatic setback hai, lekin officials ka kehna hai ke yeh India ke broader strategic goals ko derail nahi karega. India ab alternative markets explore kar raha hai for its metal exports aur global forums mein apna case strongly present kar raha hai.

China Ka Angle

Is situation mein China bhi involve ho raha hai. Beijing ke ek official, Victor Zhikai Gao, ne recently warn kiya ke agar India Pakistan ke water flow ko rokta hai, toh China bhi Brahmaputra river ka flow India ke liye block kar sakta hai. Yeh statement regional tensions ko aur badha raha hai, kyunki Brahmaputra India ke northeast ke liye critical hai.

Aage Kya?

India aur Pakistan ke beech yeh ongoing disputes dono countries ke liye serious implications rakhte hain. India ka focus abhi terrorism ke against zero-tolerance policy aur apne economic interests ko protect karne pe hai. Dusri taraf, Pakistan water crisis aur economic pressures se jujh raha hai, with IMF imposing strict conditions for financial aid.

Analysts ka kehna hai ke without meaningful dialogue, yeh tensions aur escalate ho sakte hain. Lekin, jab tak cross-border terrorism ek issue hai, India kisi bhi compromise ke mood mein nahi dikhta.

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